pacmanarcade| The U.S. economy is slowing down significantly: A-share earnings are delayed, gold and innovative drugs become the focus of allocation

Newsletter summary

Finance and economics the US economy may slow significantly, affecting global demand and delaying A-share earnings. It is suggested that we should pay attention to the strategic allocation of innovative drugs and gold, and non-ferrous varieties after the liquidity trap is lifted.PacmanarcadeSensitive elasticity. Risk hints: low expectations of monetary policy, a better-than-expected economic slowdown, and a better-than-expected rebound in US bond yields.

Text of news flash

The market focuses on a "significant slowdown" in the US economy: global funds chase dollar assets, A-shares may face delayed earnings pressure

As expectations of a US economic slowdown continue to rise, the impact of the market on the global economy and the adjustment of various types of asset allocation have shown great concern. From the perspective of this paper, this paper will deeply analyze the impact of the US economic slowdown on the global market, and how investors build an adaptive asset allocation framework.

Recently, the view of a "significant slowdown" in the US economy has been widely accepted by the market. This expectation is based on a decline in US capacity utilisation and a breakdown in the supporting logic of manufacturing and services. In this context, the consumption power weakens, the unemployment rate rises, and the economy enters a substantial slowdown.

The slowdown in the US economy will have an impact on the global demand economy, and A-share earnings are more likely to be delayed. At the same time, whether the United States will cut interest rates has become the focus of market attention, and the opening of interest rate cuts will have an impact on global liquidity and equity markets.

If the US cuts interest rates, the global liquidity-driven logic may be interrupted periodically, but positive expectations of domestic policies will provide a buffer against rising market volatility. In addition, the innovative pharmaceutical industry is seen as a direction worthy of long-term allocation.

In the non-ferrous metals sector, it is expected that the US economic slowdown may suppress the price of non-ferrous metals, but once the liquidity trap is lifted, the relevant varieties will show greater resilience.

The impact of the US economic slowdown on the energy market should not be ignored. The core variable of crude oil price trend is the US economic situation, and the change of US economic "temperature" will directly affect the strategy choice of investors.

In the allocation of large types of assets, it is recommended to strategically allocate gold and innovative drugs, and then adjust according to market changes after the liquidity trap has been lifted. The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to benefit from liquidity spillover and growth stocks are more flexible.

[risk hint]: factors such as low expectations of monetary policy, a faster-than-expected economic slowdown and a higher-than-expected rebound in US bond yields may have an impact on the market, and investors need to be vigilant.