gameblockchainnft|WTI原油：国际油价大跌5%，地缘政治与供需因素共振导致

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International oil prices fell significantly during May Day holiday, WTI prices fell by nearly 5%, and domestic crude oil fell by about 4%.Gameblockchainnft.6%. Under the influence of geopolitical, macroeconomic and changes in supply and demand, the downward pressure on oil prices has increased in the short term. However, geopolitical uncertainty and signs of demand-side stabilisation indicate the possibility of a volatile upside in oil prices in the future, with WTI estimates in the range of $82-86.

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[crude oil prices fell after the May Day holiday investors pay attention to the follow-up market trend] during the May Day holiday, international oil prices fell significantly. As of 11:00, WTI crude was quoted at $78.37 a barrel, down from 15:00 on April 30th.GameblockchainnftNearly 5%. The main opening price of domestic crude oil was 615.9 yuan per barrel, down about 30 yuan per barrel compared with the close on April 30, a drop of 4.6%, showing an obvious make-up decline. Behind the decline in oil prices is the combined effect of macro, geopolitical and supply and demand factors. On the geopolitical front, the cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas have made progress under the mediation of the United States and Egypt, and the geopolitical premium has fallen, providing impetus for the fall in oil prices. From a macro point of view, although the Fed hinted that interest rates may be cut this year, the recent inflation data in the United States are not ideal, and the process of interest rate cuts is still long, further deepening the decline in oil prices. On the supply and demand side, EIA data showed that US crude oil production exceeded expectations in February, while declining refinery operating rates led to an increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories, which failed to provide effective support for oil prices. Looking ahead, geopolitical factors will continue to provide upward support for oil prices. Cease-fire talks between Hamas and Israel have once again reached an impasse, Israel remains tough, and regional tensions are expected to intensify. From a fundamental point of view, there are signs of stabilization on the demand side of refined oil products. Although the increment of gasoline demand has declined, the increase of total demand and seasonal trend will still be the main force of demand. Diesel demand has weakened for three months in a row, but the cracking spread shows signs of stabilizing, and the model shows that the diesel cracking spread has fallen below the fundamental valuation, and the probability of decline is low. From the perspective of crude oil valuation, as prices have fallen, the premium of crude oil over fundamental valuations has fallen from $7 in the previous period to less than $3, suggesting that the current price has some support. Comprehensive analysis, the oil price trend is expected to be mainly shock upward, WTI crude oil price volatility range is expected to be between 82-86 US dollars. Investors should pay close attention to market developments and seize investment opportunities.